Friday, December 16, 2011

Seven deadly sins of European integration

- The most important nowadays is to save Europe as an integrating continent, because the alternative will be its collapse. When I hear, that Great Britain is drifting away from Europe and I can see the satisfaction on the faces of some politicians I know, that we should blow the whistle - Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said two days ago - The most important for the European Union is to show the way to further European integration. 

Why the European Union is falling apart? These are the 7 deadly sins:

1. Lack of preparation of the member states for the process of integration and weak fundaments of euro,

2. Too rapid growth of EU without fiscal and monetary integration,

3. Formal integration before growing transnational european identity,

4. Lack of institutional supervision,

5. Conflict between the efforts to establish wide-spread fiscalization and national interest of the member states, 

6. Lack of logic anchoring  in economic theory the amount of deficit criteria and public debt related to GDP for the eurozone,

7. Lack of fundamental condition of succesful integration: the economic ability of each of the member states to hold the competition and market forces in the EU

/source: Osiatyński, Ekonomista nr.5 2011/




Monday, December 12, 2011

Sickle and hammer or head and wallet? – Russian expansion

Two decades have passed since the decline of USSR. Several independent countries have come into being. The political observers and politicians creating the present have ambivalent feelings about this independence. How much of USSR tradition is there in Russian today’s reality? Is the Russian foreign policy manifested by brandishing rockets with atomic warheads? Is Russia still a country whose strength depends on the iron shoe’s power which is ready to tread every voice of independence? 

Certainly, Russia is a country with a huge military potential deriving from rusty missiles or space technology. Many decades of intensive armaments contributed to the growing popularity of military solutions among customers all over the world. What is more, Russia is able to secure its own business, especially in the nearest surroundings. Russia’s neighbors are not the only focus of its attention. Let us look at the other actions of the former superpower which is now a country with ambitions that originate from the past, though the military power is not only its method of efficient expansion. 

Business strategy 

Just several weeks ago there was an inauguration of a project showing that Russia can execute its projects without military pressure. The project is about the opening of the first gas pipeline Nord Stream where the gas flew to the Europe for the first time on 8th of November 2011. When the German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder agreed for the pipeline construction, people realized that Russia managed to come out from the 90’s collapse and that it is able to actively influence international relations. Gerhard Schroeder was paid with interest for the aid he gave: after the defeat of his party during parliament elections he received a lucrative post as a member of supervisory board of the consortium building the gas pipeline. 

In the articles in Financial Times] dating from May 2011 we could find some information about Russian bank’s taking overs in Eastern and Central Europe. Among the banks in both regions many of them are the daughter-companies which belong to the institutions having their headquarters in Western Europe where the crisis is strongly noticeable. While looking for some money, the headquarters are willing to sell their shares to Russian banks which are strongly interested in the Central Europe’s market. 

In the interview for the Financial Times, the VTB (the second largest bank in Russia) director Andrei Kostin admitted: “we develop in a constitutional way, but when we see a good occasion – we buy”. 

According to the Stratfor’s director George Friedman, “Russia wants to use the crisis caused by huge debts in Europe in order to expand its political influences on the continent. It has raised sizeable amounts of cash.” 

Today, Russia takes the opportunity to make the most of that cash stock. Let’s evoke the article from the Bloomberg Businessweek dated from the 15th September: it is stated that Russian capital has done some impressive shopping in Eastern-Central Europe increasing its resource’s value to near 2,8 milliard dollars at the same time. They have managed to do this in only three years. The example was the Sberbank’s purchase of the Austrian Oesterreichische Volksbanken’s shares as well as the Russian Railways’ investments in Slovak railways. Purchases in Poland are also discussed. 

Iwona Wiśniewska, the author of the reports for the Eastern Studies Center claims: “Since 2005 we have been observing a dynamic increase of Russian foreign direct investments. They went up from 10 million dollars in 2003 to the record-breaking amount of 55,6 milliard dollars in 2008. In spite of the economic crisis, the Russian investments were still significant – they reached 52 milliard dollars. In 2010 Russia was the eighth biggest foreign investor in the world, and in so called “rising economies” it was on the third place after Hongkong and China”. 

The important thing is that these data include only the investments of the transactors registered in Russia. We also need to take into consideration the Russian actions which are difficult to estimate and which are becoming more and more popular thanks to some tax paradises like Cyprus, Sheep Islands or Gibraltar and also to some international concerns where Russia has its shares. 

As noted in the OSW report, Russia can always count on an influential lobbyist – the Kremlin – which openly supports investments in different sectors. It does not happen without reason. Many of the biggest companies, active abroad, are directly related to Kremlin. Some of them do not hide this fact; the Russian government is still a shareholder of many largest banks and concerns. Sometimes, they act under the pretence of being a private enterprise which still belongs to the Kremlin-related oligarchs. 

Taking care of the image 

Those unclear connections badly influence the image of Russian business. The OSW report shows the results of the studies conducted in 2010 by Edelman – a public relations international company. These results show that the image of Russian business is not quite good. Businessmen from developed countries are not convinced of this image; however the situation is better in the economies of developing countries. The Russian image is getting better and better. “The improvement of Russian image and capital is caused by the rhetoric’s change from confrontational to cooperative in foreign politics as well as improving Russia’s promotion abroad. The Russian TV “Russia Today” and the PR agencies (Gpuls from Brussels or the American Hill & Knowlton) play a significant role in this process. 



Let’s take a closer look at the RT station whose materials I often cited in my blog. This television is not only providing us with professional materials presented from the Russian point of view and consistent with the Russian reason of state. Thanks to the massive Internet use it became something similar to the “Radio Free Europe”. The independent journalists, commentators, who are hard to find in American or British media (they are called the “conspiracy theories hunters” once they appear) are invited to RT for discussions as trustful and competent publicists and specialists. They are invited also because they criticize the Western politics. 

It is also worth mentioning that this TV station does not only broadcast in English language, but also in Spanish after a record of an increasing amount of Spanish customers. 

International cooperation 

A significant change in Russian diplomacy is also visible in its international actions. Russia, formerly perceived as a country using brutal forces, is now the initiator of international agreements and pacts. One of the examples of these agreements is Shanghai Cooperation Organization or recently announced by the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the Eurasian Union. This initiative aims to create a free commerce region on the huge area of Europe and Asia. Despite the fact that many people associate it with USSR, it became a largely discussed international project. 

All these elements cause that, at least on the outside, Russia tries to break with its image of dull power being only a background for mafia or the market for arm and natural resources trade. The new Russian approach intrigues many people, but we have to remember that often there’s something totally different behind the image created by agencies. Sometimes, everything is not as visible as Czech “Karlove Vary” where there are more Russians than native Czechs.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

One of CIA secret prisons found in Romania

AFP agency has revealed the location of one of the secret prisons where people arrested during the „war on terror” were being kept. 

The prison localized by the journalists was placed in one of the Romania's government buildings in the northern side of country's capital Bucharest. 

The building's code-name was „Bright Light”, one of the prisoners kept in its basement was Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, considered as the on of the masterminds of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. 

The prisoners were in Bucharest until 2006, when they were finally moved to the American military base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. 

Until today, the place where the CIA prisoners were kept in Romania remained unknown. Previous journalist investigation has revealed similar prisons in Lithuania (a village near Vilnius) and Poland (military base in Stare Kiejkuty). The discovery of a CIA prison in Bucharest was an effect of cooperation between journalists from French AFP and German public television ARD. 

Only few years ago the existence of the CIA secret bases in the Central-East Europe was considered as a „conspiracy theory” and not many people treated these stories seriously. In my book „Kod Władzy” („Code of Power”) main characters, who are journalists, are going to Mazury (region in Northern Poland where prisons were located) to examine informations about one of them. How many similar mysteries still wait to be revealed by the Fourth Estate?

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Sorrounded Iran

If anyone had any doubts that the whole mess in the Middle East is not about Iran but some other country, please have a look on this map.


source: japanfocus.org

It takes a lot of time to create such a net around Islamic Republic. That is why we can easily see that if it was attacked today it wouldn't be an accident. 


Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The prophecies of the Muslim patriarch

There are many prophecies telling us what will happen in the future. The vast mayority is connected with the year 2012 and what will happen in coming months. At the same time we know almost only these prophecies which are connected with our culture, especially with Christianity. Is it possible that similiar words can be heard from Muslims? 

Very interesting are especially prophecies of Mohamed Nazim El-Hakkani, a Sufi from Cyprus and the leader of the Naqshbandi Order, one of major sufi orders. He was born in 1922 and is a member of an old family descending from the 13th century poet and mistic Jalaluddina Rumi. Nazim predicted the political changes in the Middle East long before they started. 

He says that the great events will take place at the beginning of the month of Muharram, which in islamic tradition is the first month of the year. The month Muharram had begun on November 26th 2011 (the beginning of the next will be on November 15th 2012). 

We Await Muharram

All the countries now are covered with darkness, darkness (...) I am looking for the month of Muharram when, if something happens, this world will be like this.(upside down - Orwellsky) (...) The Prophet (s) informed us that there will be troubles and quarrelling among the Arabs. Now the Arabs are divided (...)But these troubles (among Arabs) must end in Muharram (...) We will see: if there is movement, everyone must stay where they are. They should not come and go or move around, no! The tenth day of Muharram, if what was supposed to happen happens, in Muharram and Safar al-khayr, millions will perish! (...)
What happened in Egypt is from His severe punishment and the same happened in Libya, Yemen, Tunisia, Algeria and in Syria! 

Take Precaution In The Month of Muharram 

The first of Muharram will be on Saturday (November 26). This month Dhul Hijjah is 29 days, meaning Saturday is more correct.
Allah (swt) knows what will take place and what will happen during the month of Muharram; therefore, if there is no urgency or absolute necessity, there is no need to travel, not to America, not to Europe. You have to take precaution and be careful and attentive. 
Maybe WWIII will start in the Middle East and the Russian army may reach to the plain of Amuq in Syria. The war will take place. Allah (swt) will make Islam victorious and support it and open the way to Turkey. Allah (swt) may open the way to Istanbul. From there, the sultan will come and enter Istanbul, and Imam Mahdi (a) is still present in the movement, but he is not appearing yet. 
Maybe this event will take place in the month of Rajab or after, when Imam Mahdi (a) will enter Istanbul. This means that the region of the Middle East is on fire. The army will come from Damascus against the Russian army and the hand of Imam Mahdi (a) is with the army, but he himself is not present or appearing. 
I am not afraid, but rather cautious of the occurence of Armageddon as the time is very near! Therefore, in the month of Muharram everyone must be careful and take precaution. They should not move like this, like that. Without absolute necessity, do not move! Everyone must remain in their areas and in their homes (stay where they are).  
It means do not go out of your homes unless absolutely necessary. Keep yourselves in your homes as the one who stays in his or her home is in safety and security, but he who goes out is in danger as something may hit him. 
Therefore, every person according to their situation and possibility, should keep stocks (of food) in their homes so they may not be needy. And you do not know, the grocery shops may be closed and you may not find anything. You may then find something in your house, and from what you stocked for you and your family for twenty days by divine permission and blessing may last forty days. If a person may buy extra, more than his family’s needs, and he asks to grant to the poor people who come and knock at his door, he may also reach them. By the divine generosity of Allah (swt) and by His favor and blessing, if you spend something on the poor servants of Allah (swt) He will increase the provision in your home without you knowing it. Do you understand?



Another interesting case is that for Shia Muslims Muharram is one of the major months of the year, while the 10th of Muharram is a day of sorrow. There is not much time to have Nazim's prophecy fullfilled.

Monday, December 5, 2011

German intelligence agency destroyed personal files of their former Nazi employees

Germany's major intelligence agency has claimed to destroy personal files of its former Nazi employees.

Some of former NSDAP, Gestapo, SS and SD officials were recruited after the World War II by West-German Federal Intelligence Agency (BND). According to data from the agency it is estimated that they were about ten per cent of the people employed there during the post-war period. 

BND seal
The scandal was revealed after former BND director, Ernst Uhrlau had invited an independent group of historians to study how much West-German intelligence agencies were depending on former Nazis. 

The speaker of the group Dr Klaus-Dietmar Henke has revealed recently in media, that in 2007 the agency had destroyed about 250 personal files of the BND employees who used to be connected with the Nazi movement. 

Der Spiegel which has published an interview with Henke described whole incident "the true historical scandal". It also notes that, for several decades after the end of WWII in BND existed a policy of recruiting new staff from among the family members. As a result many people working in BND are direct descendants of those former Nazi officials and were interested in hiding these facts. 

The agency has claimed that the documents were destroyed, but as they added, these files were only 2% of the total size of the agency’s archive available to historians. In their opinion the documents "were not deemed to be worth keeping". 

Reinhard Gehlen
West-German intelligence had employed hundreds of former Nazi officials in the period between 1956-1971. First BND director Reinhard Gehlen was general in Wehrmacht and since 1945 he worked as a CIA agent. According to the leaks published by Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung in 2009, he as well as his American employers were aware of the Nazi past of many West-German intelligence agents. 

This information reveals an interesting plot in the newest German History, it is worth to think about how much we Poles actually know about our Western neighbour.


Russians are arming Syria

According to the anonymous military sources published by Interfax agency, Russia has delivered anti-cruise S-300 missiles to Syria.

Russian ships which have arrived to Syria had on their board missiles which, as the agency sources claim, "allow coverage of entire Syrian coastline". 

Russia didn't accept the UN, Arab League and Western Europe states calling for an arms embargo on Syria. During the UN Security Council summit in October Russia together with China didn't agree on Council's resolution to condemn Assad's government. According to Moscow officials resolution could open the door for Western intervention like it hapenned in Libya.
Sergei Lavrov
fot. Mikhail Ewstafiew

During the press conference on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that a similar move against Libya had proved one-sided: ""We know how that worked in Libya when the arms embargo only applied to the Libyan army. The opposition received weapons, and countries like France and Qatar publicly spoke about it without shame."

"Israel National News" informed that Moscow is considering potential Western attack on Syria as a "red line" which will not be tolerated. 

Earlier that week the media informed about the visit of Russian aircraft-carrying missile cruiser "Admiral Kuznecov" which will soon arrive to the port in the city of Tartus.


Sunday, December 4, 2011

The eavesdropped world.

Are you sure that you’re not being bugged while reading this text? Maybe your favorite phone has been tapped to record every single word you say. Who’s done that? You don’t know, do you? You’d better wonder if you’re not in someone’s bad books. 

The conspiracy theory

Is it a joke? Or a conspiracy theory? Those who claim that we were, we are, and we will always be eavesdropped are considered to be insane, aren’t they? Or at least they’re said to be the conspiracy theorists. The possible grain of truth included in those theories stems from wrong interpretation of the facts or even more often from essentially unjustified presumptions. These believers will always find a place in a cabaret or a madhouse. So, how should we explain the statement of Zbigniew Brzeziński, ex-advisor of the president of the USA, who says: ‘The technocratic era will be based on increase in the social control. This kind of society will be dominated by the ruling èlite which has no regard for traditional values’? How good does the second sentence sound? Is the society, which shows complete disregard of the traditional values, so greedy that it treats the rest as slaves throwing their way around? So does this control apply to all or just the rebels? 

The formal government institutions would be, in conformity with the law, enabled to control and to eavesdrop the citizens, moreover secret spies would be devised. 

There are two kinds of espionage. The first one is presented in books or movies. The second one is the genuine one. The first one is connected with car crashes and beautiful women. The real spying consist of digging through the garbage, planting bugs in someone’s flat and many hours spent with headphones on. The taps are installed everywhere: in your shoes, phones, pens. They quietly wait for you under your bed or desk. 

The history of eavesdropping includes incidents with jealous wives and ‘thrifty’ politicians. The crucial moment was the famous Watergate scandal, when it has turned out that everybody can eavesdrop. The case came out into the open thanks to two Washington Post journalists: Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. The authorities were those who eavesdropped and stayed beyond any suspicion. The incident has shocked the whole USA. It has turned out that several people connected with president Nixon used the ex-workers of the secret service to eavesdrop the campaign headquarters of the Democratic Party. Moreover the case of the burglary to the headquarters in Watergate complex, Washington has been exposed during the election campaign in 1972.

The Watergate scandal implied the end of Richard Nixon’s political career. He resigned from office under the threat of impeachment in August 1974. His successor, Gerald Ford approved a document a month later, which declared amnesty for Nixon concerning all offences he had or might have committed as the president. Due to the scandal 40 high ranking public officials were accused or arrested including John Mitchell the director of the Committee to Re-elect the President and Charles Colson. Richard Nixon resisted on his innocence till the end. 

The Polish Watergate

Wiretapping has been used in Europe as well. It’s worth noticing that this time the authorities were those who were wiretapped. The well-known scandal of the tapes of truth, where the then Prime Minister of Hungary Ferenc Gyurcsany unaware of being recorded admitted to lying to his electors, had a widespread impact. The consequences of the tap were so grave that the long protests of citizens became ferocious. 

There was a time when Rydzyk’s and Oleksy’s tapes were a popular topic in Poland. And the most renowned recordings brought the famous incident about which caused the fall of the Miller’s government and the beginning of SLD failure. The Michnik’s scandal took place when Adam Michnik recorded Lew Rywin who offered a bribe while visiting him and was later proven guilty. 

According to the official data from the June report Prosecutor General Andrzej Seremet, the police and other authorities applied for ordering operational supervision and inspection for 6723 citizens and the court complied with 6453 cases. It isn’t terrifying at all, is it? Are you sure? According to the report of the European Commission, Poles are the most surveillanced nation in the European Union. The authors of the report state that the police along with secret services have analyzed thoroughly citizens’ billings more than 1 300 000 times. Even if billings of the same people were looked through more than once it’s easy to see how many citizens were actually inspected. 

There are nine institutions which eavesdrop us. These are: the Military Police, the Border Guard, Government Protection Bureau, the Internal Security Agency, Foreign Intelligence Agency, the Counterespionage Services, military intelligence, General anti-corruption bureau, the Revenue Intelligence. What’s more, the amount of bugs has increased since last year. 

The situation in Europe is not getting any better. While the clerks are still using the phone billings, the potential terrorists have already switched to the modern technologies such as free Skype. 

Several years ago the Italian police took the initiative of push the possibility of recording the conversations held via this communicator. The case was send to the highest resorts of the European Union, but has so far ended in failure. 

The invisible microphone

According to the historians the bugs using the radio waves were available soon after World War II and the Polish secret services owned them in the fifties. Nowadays the GSM technology solutions are being broadly used. 

There are many ways of eavesdropping, even the person who is not an expert on electronics would be able to construct a tap. One should only find a suitable instruction film to build a simple device using the radio waves. But why should we bother? Dozens of companies offer all that’s necessary to record the crucial words. Sale of the devices is legal, isn’t it? Only eavesdropping is forbidden. Since the bugs are available it’s obvious that there are also various devices to drown them. The online shops offer the necessary equipment-everything, depending on what we need. Their good stock includes devices generating low tones which are inaudible, but despite that decoding the records from bugs is impossible. The other kinds of appliances drown the GSM signal and therefore the mobile phones and cameras can’t work properly within 50 meters in this frequency band. Unfortunately the privacy costs dear, most of the drowning appliances cost at least few hundred and the prices of the most expensive ones reach few thousand. 

Speaking of the GSM, it’s worth underlining that the mobile phone connections aren’t safe any longer. A short time ago the algorithms used to code them were really outdated, today they would be 23 years old. Two years after the effective breaking of the codes by a German computer scientist the coded were updated. But will this be enough? Human creativity knows no bounds. In 2010 during the Def Con Conference Chris Paget showed new method of intercepting phone conversations which only requires a laptop, appropriate program and some knowledge. The total cost of constructing this device reached only 1500$. It’s easy to see that it’s available to the general public. 

The legal question of accessing the information from mobile network operators are still unregulated, hence the services can easily find out when and who have we talked with. The text messages are even worse. It’s unofficially said that the operators are partially archiving the messages, thus they can also pass on the data to the third party-all that makes this way of communication rather fear arousing. The most careful ones can follow Julian Assange and change their phone number after every single call. 

The scandal

When the opportunities of eavesdropping are broadening we can no longer be sure of being more lucky than the British. The scandal with the News of the world has exposed new facts. It has turned out that the bugs are also planted by the journalists, who used to be adored for their honesty. Jacek Mojkowski from the Focus has noticed that the system in Great Britain was ‘a toxic agreement between the police, media and politics’ - even though the Scotland Yard knew about the bugs didn’t launch the investigation, as many of their employees had worked for the ‘NoTW’ before. So the last resort for the citizens longing for the truth has vanished. The journalist may have learnt the shocking actions from the Deutche Telekom, which received the ‘Big Brother Award’ in 2008 for disturbing the press freedom after catching their employees eavesdropping the journalists’ conversations. Anyway, passing over the offenders, we can’t be sure if the information about us will not be given to the third party. 

Overhearing the ordinary Mr Brown regardless of his mother country is becoming easier. The increasing control doesn’t cause neither anxiety nor protests. Considering the recent events in Norway we may expect ideas for even stronger control. But is that right?

Thursday, December 1, 2011

US Senate discussing bill seriously attacking American civil liberties

The U.S. Senate has discussed new military funding bill. Document was completed by a controversial part diversifying laws of the army on the US territory. 

New bill called The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will authorise $662 billion for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, military personel and national security. The amount of money will be $43 billion less than what Congress provided to the Pentagon in 2011. 

But it is not about the money. The document contains the proposal which will allow the army to arrest civilians suspected of being terrorists. There are no clear guarantees about the trial of arrested person. 

One of the senators, Rand Paul from Kentucky protested: "Under the provisions, wouldn't it be possible, then, that an American citizen could be declared an enemy combatant and sent to Guantanamo Bay and detained indefinitely?"

Former presidental candidate, who helped write out the relevant provision in the bill, respondend: "I think that as long as that individual, no matter who they are, if they pose a threat to the security of the United States of America, should not be allowed to continue that threat."

The document would be probably voted on Thursday, in case it would be accepted by the Senate, NDAA will still need to be signed by president Obama. 

If the bill would be accepted, it will be another document after 2001's Patriot Act which seriously attacks civil liberties. Until now, US citizens have been defended by law which didn`t let anyone to be detained without the trial, even those suspected of being terrorists. It is interesting that the idea of passing such document has shown up during the economic crisis which seems to be the greatest since 1920's.

source1/source2