Middle East - it is not safe there

It is almost one year after the Arab Spring had beagun. It was supposed to be the beginning of the great change in the Middle East and perhaps idealists were expecting that the things will go better. They were probably connecting the regime change with a greater stability, freedom and safety. While it is surely too early to conclude what would be the results of the spring protests, it is worth to search informations from the region. 

We are still pretty far from having sheikh Nazim prophecies coming true. He warned us that in the month of Muharram (between November and December) there will be a great war in the Middle East, he suggested to everyone that they should stay in their homes for at least few days. 

What is the level of security seen by the independent analytics and advisors? In their opinion many organisations should verify their strategies of functioning in many countries in the nearest future. 

source: Maplecroft/Statrisks.com
(please be apologized for the resolution)

As they claim the risk of war has increased recently in several countries, the most dangerous areas are obviously the Middle East and Africa. 

In a special conflict risk index there are 12 countries considered as the "extreme risk" states. Following list contains the first ten of them: 

1. Afghanistan

2. Côte d’Ivoire

3. Iraq

4. Libya

5. Pakistan

6. South Sudan

7. Syria

8. Nigeria

9. Somalia

10.Yemen

We can see from the map above, that not only Africa and Middle East are in danger. Almost whole Asia i considered as the "high-risk" - this would explain recent events in this area and new alliances.

On the other hand we can see that Poland is once again a "green island", this time in security. We are safer than the majority of West European countries and our Eastern neighbours, with Ukraine at risk of a civil war. 

It is also interesting that in the previous index Libya was on 120th position and this year it has "advanced" to fourth. Does it mean that the rank is unnacurrate? Only year ago there were few who expected that the richest country in Northern Africa will suddenly change. We live in the time of dynamical changes, that is why it is very hard to say where we are really safe. 

source